Obama didn't pass the exams for the economy

Three months before the election, President Barack Obama gets good marks from Americans for his handling of terrorism, fair marks for education and foreign affairs, but poor marks on immigration and three big economic issues: the federal budget deficit, creating jobs, and the economy generally.

These ratings, from a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 9-12, are similar to Americans' previous ratings of Obama's performance on each issue, as measured in 2011 and early February 2012. Only his approval on terrorism (58%) is down slightly from the peak level (63%) seen last fall after the killing of Libyan President Moammar Gadhafi. Also, his approval on education, at 49%, is up slightly from 41% last August.

Obama's Economy Ratings Trail Those of Prior Two-Term Presidents

Obama's ratings on the economy are significantly worse than all three prior successful presidential incumbents at this same point in their first term, according to the available Gallup trends. His 36% approval rating on the economy is well below George W. Bush's rating in August 2004 (46%), Bill Clinton's in August 1996 (54%), and Ronald Reagan's in July 1984 (50%). Still, in terms of comparisons to presidents who lost, Obama's economic rating is substantially better than that of George H.W. Bush in July 1992 (18%). Gallup did not measure Americans' approval of Jimmy Carter on the economy in 1980.

Obama's single worst rating of the seven issues measured in the current poll is for the federal budget deficit. However it is unclear how problematic this will be for him. His 30% approval rating on the deficit falls about halfway between Clinton's in August 1996 (43%) and Reagan's in July 1984 (23%).

Gallup initiated the "creating jobs" approval rating in 2009, and thus has no readings on it for previous presidents. However, on the similar item of "unemployment," Reagan earned a 48% approval rating in 1984, higher than Obama's 37% for creating jobs.

The available historical comparisons are more favorable for Obama on non-economic issues. His 48% approval rating on foreign affairs is among the highest earned by each of the last six elected presidents at this point in their presidencies. It is roughly on par with successful candidates George W. Bush (44%) and Clinton (53%), as well as George H. W. Bush (50%), who lost. Further muddying the interpretation of foreign affairs ratings, two presidents with similarly low ratings on foreign affairs -- Reagan with 38% approval and Carter with 33% -- had markedly different re-election outcomes.

According to Gallup's more limited job approval trends on education and terrorism, Obama's current ratings on both issues are nearly identical to George W. Bush's in August 2004; however, his approval on education is lower than Clinton's was in August 1996.


Economy Rating Most Closely Approximates Overall Job Approval

Comparing presidents' various issue approval ratings to their overall job approval ratings from the same polls, it appears that the economy approval rating is consistently the closest to overall job approval, and therefore arguably the most relevant. The only significant separation seen between the two was in July 1992 when George H.W. Bush's economy rating was an exceptionally low 18% compared to his overall job approval rating of 32%. By contrast, Gallup has typically seen presidents' overall job ratings run substantially higher than their approval on the federal budget deficit -- particularly with Reagan in 1984.

The relationship between a president's overall job approval rating and his approval rating on foreign affairs has varied, with the foreign affairs rating sometimes significantly higher than overall job approval and sometimes significantly lower. There are too few measures of other issue ratings to draw meaningful conclusions about their connection to overall job approval.


Bottom Line

Nearly six in 10 Americans approve of Obama's handling of terrorism; however, that is where majority approval of the president ends in the current poll. He earns his lowest issue ratings on the economic issue areas tested in the survey, with approval on the federal budget deficit the lowest at 30%, and his approval on the economy not much higher, at 36%.

While Obama's issue ratings are largely unchanged from where they have been over the past year, that stability may be a problem given his overall job approval rating is 45%. Historically, presidents who won a second term had near-50% job approval ratings or better prior to the election. To move closer to that range, Obama may want to focus singularly on raising his approval rating on the economy, as with previous presidents it seems to have been the issue approval most closely linked to overall job approval.

Explore President Obama's approval ratings in depth and compare them with those of past presidents in the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center.

Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 9-12, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phones numbers are selected using random digit dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone-only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.

Ryan is the Romney' s failed pick

by Jeffrey M. Jones

Mitt Romney's standing in the presidential election campaign has not changed materially in the immediate days after his announcement of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential running mate. 

The first four days of Gallup Daily tracking after Romney's announcement show 47% of registered voters saying they would vote for Romney and 45% for Barack Obama if the election were held today. The four days prior showed Romney at 46% and Obama at 45%.

While the initial indication is no increase in Romney's support after naming Ryan, the data suggest the possibility that Romney may get a delayed bounce, as he fared slightly better in Aug. 13-14 Gallup tracking than in Aug. 11-12 tracking.
The lack of an immediate increase for Romney is consistent with Sunday's USA Today/Gallup poll that found a generally tepid reaction to the Ryan pick, especially in comparison to past vice-presidential choices.

Like this year, Gallup also did not find any significant change in voter preferences for the 2008 election after Obama and John McCain each named his running mate. However, in the 1996-2004 campaigns, the vice presidential choice seemed to have a more noticeable impact on voters.

Gallup cannot accurately assess the effect of vice presidential announcements on voter preferences prior to 1996, given the timing of polls and other campaign events in those years. Specifically, in many earlier elections, the vice presidential choice was made during the party's nominating convention, so it is not possible to isolate any change in voter preferences due to the vice presidential choice from changes associated with the party's conventions, which usually produce a bounce for the nominee.

The American race is continued (for Obama)

Three days after, at Republican Party the Romney’s pick (Ryan) gave solutions to many questions, but it caused many problems. 

Specifically, Ryan is aggressive, communicative and he seems to know the economics.

But the old statement about the taxation of the middle class caused a negative impression. According to opinion polls, a large crowd is already negative person in this election.

The Obama's campaign is continued with some new ideas. Yesterday, the President spoke at Oskalousa. There, he pointed out the differences between Democrats and Republicans. His voters had gathered to hear him. After the speech many of them spoke about President Obama.

Thereby his staff tries to bring the focus of the election campaign the “American people”.

After the latest polls show Obama is not anxious about his re-election. He is ahead of Romney by 7 percentage points.

Some voters’ opinions for Obama:
“I think the stark difference is that the President ultimately stands for the working class and the middle class. And I know it almost gets to sound cliché—but they’ve got the data to support the claim that the Republicans are, in fact, in support of the richest and the wealthiest in America. That's who they want to aim the tax cuts toward, and they want to then pay for that on the backs of some of the middle-class, working Americans.”
—Scott, volunteer

“[President Obama] is trying to help the middle class. And having Mitt Romney trying to raise taxes on the middle class just really irritates me. I don't know how people can support that.”
—Danielle, student

"I’m voting for Obama. I wasn't old enough to vote in 2007, but I would have voted for Obama. I value everything that he supports, pretty much. So does my family."
—Taylor, student

“I'm a big Obama supporter. I believe his compassion, his empathy, his sense of where America needs to go is the right one that we need. And I think his family values and what we see from the Obama family is representative of the United States. These are real people that have come from where we are. I don’t think Mitt Romney has a clue what Americans are going through.”
—Wanda, retired

“[Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan] live in a different world that most of us don't. And they're just totally out of touch with reality and the working class people. Mitt Romney said in Des Moines at the State Fairgrounds that corporations are people, too, and that's how they feel. President Obama is trying to move this country forward. He’s created more than 4 million new jobs. I think things are on the right track.”
—Rick, firefighter

Bad news for Obama IV

This is the USA map with the Obama's influence 

Bad news for Obama III

The expert of gallup poll Jeffrey M. Jones writes:


It is certainly possible that voters' evaluations of Obama in various states could be more positive or less positive on Election Day than they were during January through June of this election year. However, presidents' approval ratings on the national level historically haven't changed much in the final few months before the election.

The list of states in which Obama had majority approval during the first half of the year includes three of the largest states -- California, New York, and Illinois. This helps boost the combined Electoral College vote of states with majority approval of Obama to a total of 185. All of these states have voted reliably for Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections.

Most of the 16 states in which Obama's approval rating is below 40% tend to be smaller in population and thus have fewer electoral votes. The largest of these are Tennessee and Indiana with 11 electoral votes each. The 16 states with approval ratings lower than 40% total 93 electoral votes, and typically have supported Republican presidential candidates in recent elections.

That leaves 21 states in which Obama's approval rating is between 40% and 50%, including some of the largest "swing states" such as Florida (46%), Pennsylvania (46%), and Ohio (44%).

Bad news for Obama II

Learn the results of the gallup poll


 

Bad news for Obama I

The last results of a gullop poll are too results for Barack Obama. According to gullop politics  a majority of residents in 13 states and the District of Columbia approved of the job Barack Obama did as president during the first six months of 2012. His highest ratings by state were in Hawaii (63%) and Rhode Island (58%), in addition to the 83% approval from District of Columbia residents. In 16 states, his approval rating averaged below 40%, with residents of Utah, Wyoming, and Alaska least approving.